As one might expect during a national election and the months that lead up to it, polls are one of the single most important indicators of a general population’s opinion. But they don’t only indicate whether or not the public likes a particular candidate. In addition, they allow a glimpse into what about that candidate they enjoy or are impressed by and how that has changed in recent months or even weeks.
Take the upcoming presidential election between Democratic former vice president Joe Biden and Republican incumbent Donald Trump, for example.
Early polls and indicators suggested that, while being unprecedented in many ways, it would kind of be a toss-up. Trump, in the last four years, has done an excellent job with our economy, and Americans as a whole were seeing more money in their pockets than they had in the last 70-ish years. However, Trump himself is a bit controversial due to his unwillingness to back down, as well as his not so eloquent comments and speeches.
But then the novel and fast-spreading coronavirus pandemic hit our shores and changed everything. The economy, one of Trump’s number one strengths, took a nosedive. And with so many people becoming infected and dying, some began to doubt Trump’s ability to bring us out of the crisis and into the light of day again.
Then, just when things started to seem like we would make it, George Floyd died in police custody in Minneapolis, setting off a national conversation about racial injustice and police brutality. Trump, who has always shown himself to be a law and order president, naturally, was painted as the bad guy. Polls began to show even more support for Biden, as they likely would have for anyone choosing to run against Trump.
However, as that conversation quickly escalated into protests, and now riots, looting, violence on a massive scale, people are once again changing their minds.
Up until these last few weeks, it was a relatively slow transition, thought to have been partly brought on by Biden’s nonstop gaffes and nonsensical rambling combined with a fear of rising crime that the Democrats seem not so interested in quiet.
The conventions didn’t help out much either. While cities literally burned, Democrats held their convention with party-like momentum. Rather than talking about policy and how they would make this a better place to live, they seemed obsessed with doing nothing but bashing Trump.
People were unimpressed.
But that wasn’t the case for the Republican National Convention. In contrast, Trump, as well as many others, spoke often and sincerely about helping out those who were hurting, whether due to the lasting effects of the pandemic or the never-ending riots. They talked about putting a stop to it and making America something to be proud of again.
Polls everywhere immediately starting show a spike in support for Trump. One showed him with a ten-point lead among independents, while another gave him nine more points among Black voters and two for Hispanics.
But polls are the only things indicating public support for Trump is on the rise. According to a recent Real Clear Politics graph showing betting markets, Biden and Trump are nearly tied with 50.6% and 49.1%, respectively.
Now to understand why being tied is such a big deal, you have to realize that just one month ago, Biden led the same seven betting markets by an average of 61-37. Talk about a difference.
In just a month’s time, Trump has gained a significant amount of ground.
No wonder Biden and the Dems are suddenly hitting the panic button and changing their tune on the not so peaceful protests.
Note that when Biden and Trump last were tied, and when Biden began to show more favor, it was in late May/early June, right after George Floyd’s death. People seemed to like the idea of the Dems approving of protest and the need for change. However, as the violence has not only continued but escalated, with some significant crimes taking place within the last month, they have changed their mind.
And the RNC just confirmed what many of them already knew, the Dems are using whatever they can to their gain, while Trump is actually fighting for Americans.